There’s been a surge in youth voting since 2018, and if it continues it’s going to upend next week’s US election
According to a new national poll from the Institute of Politics at Harvard’s Kennedy School, 40% of 18–29 year olds say they are definitely going to vote in the mid-terms. That is on track to match or maybe even surpass the record level of turnout from young people in 2018.
This, more than any other bit of political news I’ve seen in recent weeks, is a big deal.
Unlike other national surveys, the Harvard Public Opinion Project focuses solely on querying young voters, which means that it offers more precision about the way they are trending.
It should be obvious why this is important, but let me spell it out. In 2018, voter turnout among 18–29 year-olds rose dramatically from 20% four years early to 36%. That was the Trump effect at work. His polarizing brand of leadership didn’t just stir up his support base, it also mobilized millions of young people who were repelled by his politics as well.
Young voters tilt demonstrably toward the Democratic Party. According to the IOP poll, they want Democrats to stay in control of Congress by a nearly two-to-one margin, 57% to 31%. That preference has only gotten stronger since the spring, according to the group.
What has happened since then? More terrible school shootings plus one truly earth-shaking Supreme Court opinion, along with a rising assault on LGBTQ youth. And those developments are reflected in the IOP survey. In the spring, the last time IOP polled young people, women preferred Democratic control of Congress by a 26 point margin. Now that has risen to 35 points, which the preferences of young men have barely shifted.
Most young Americans believe their rights as well as the rights of others are under attack. As the IOP reports, “Members of the LGBTQ community feel the most pressure, as 72% are concerned about their own individual rights. While 63% of women agree their rights are under attack compared to 55% of men, a similar proportion of women (73%) and men (72%) agree that the rights of others are under attack today.” Young people are also generally positive about three major Democratic achievements of the last year — the Inflation Reduction Act, the new bipartisan gun law and student debt relief.
So the big question of the election is whether young people with this mix of preferences actually turn out across America to vote, especially in swing states. The IOP survey has a clue here too: It found that Americans under 30 in battleground states are more likely to vote (45%) than those from traditional red (33%) or blue states (40%). This means that a lot of pollsters may be in for a shock. Most of the polls we’re seeing now are under-counting how many of these people are “likely” to vote, since they either are new to the electorate or don’t have the past voting history that would cause a pollster to categorize them as likely to vote.
At this point, with early voting already underway, there isn’t a lot that’s likely to change the trajectory of the 2022 election. If you are, like me, worried about the openly fascist tenor of Republican politics these days, it’s frustrating to realize that control of Congress is going to be determined by handfuls of undecided voters who haven’t had the time or inclination to pay attention to the choices on the ballot and who may decide to vote Republican because they don’t like Biden very much and want to “give the other side a chance” as if the GOP will somehow cure inflation.
But one thing you can do — beyond talking to all the people in your own circle, the ones who you have the most influence on — is help groups that are organizing to reach young voters activate this sleeping giant. Voters of Tomorrow has already texted 3 million young people but giving to them now will help extend that program right up to the wire. You can also volunteer time with them to help get out the vote. It’s not too late to make a difference, and by activating young people you are also making a longer term investment in the future, for once people get the habit of voting when they’re young, they are likely to continue doing so for a lifetime.