It turns out that old-fashioned Congressional oversight, the kind we haven’t seen in a long time, can move public opinion.
Why bother holding hearings investigating Donald Trump? It’s not going to change any minds.
That’s an argument I hear a lot, especially from Democrats. They look across the aisle and see 74 million people who voted for Trump in 2020, and they wonder how exposing his unfitness for office now could matter after everything that was manifest while he was in power. They look at how the vast bulk of Republicans support his false claim that the election was rigged or stolen, and they wonder what difference investigations could make.
Well, I have news. It turns out that old-fashioned Congressional oversight, the kind that used to be practiced decades ago, where a committee hires expert investigators and seasoned prosecutors, and uses its subpoena powers to compel people and organizations to testify and release crucial documents, not only can uncover critical new facts. Coupled with thoughtfully designed hearings that tell a clear story, it can change minds.
That’s the upshot of a new survey out today from Navigator Research, who polled 998 registered voters between June 9 and June 13, while the first two sessions of the January 6th select committee were underway. Three-fifths of the public say they’ve heard at least something, if not a lot, about the hearings, thanks to widespread media coverage, and some minds are shifting.
Who is changing their minds? Not Republicans, which shouldn’t surprise anyone. People who have dug in feelings about an identity or a whole world view don’t budge much if at all when confronted with contradictory information. Motivated reasoning kicks in. According to the Navigator poll, the percentage of Republicans with a positive view of “MAGA Republicans” has actually gone up by an eight-point margin since the hearings started, to 64%.
But there’s been a very important shift among people who identify as independents. Just 15% of them now say they have a favorable view of MAGA Republicans, compared to 51% with a negative view. That reflects a 17-point shift in a more negative direction from a month ago. People who identify as Hispanic, a voting bloc full of contradictory and complex elements but one that is also a big swing factor in elections, have also shifted, with just 24% now viewing MAGA favorably and 52% negative, also a 17% net shift from a month ago.
The main Republican talking point raised before the hearings started, that Democrats are “too focused on the past” and we need to focus on the future and issues facing America today, hasn’t landed. Since the hearings started, the percentage of independents agreeing with that dismissive point of view has dropped a net five points, with 45% agreeing now that the committee “is doing important work” and “we need to uncover the truth of what happened that day to make sure it never happens again.”
This shows that it’s possible to move public attention and not just be moved by other actors or forces.
There’s a lesson here, one that I wish more people, particularly those concerned about Trump’s malign influence, would take. Digging and exposing the truth can make a difference. Think of how few hearings other Democratic-controlled committees have held on Trump. No hearings on how the Saudis and other Middle Eastern interests have bribed him or family members, for example. None on what is already known about his family’s fake foundation. Adam Davidson, an investigative reporter who has reported on Trump for The New Yorker, made this point in a terrific Twitter thread yesterday. He writes:
“A shocking fact: NOBODY has truly investigated Trump’s business links to Russia. Nobody. Not the FBI. Not Mueller. Not J6 Committee (not their job). Not — as far as I can tell — Manhattan DC or NY AG.” He goes on to point out that some reporters have done solid work, but “every single deal I looked at is ripe for investigation. In Indonesia, he is partnering with the theatrically corrupt Hary Tanoe. In the Philippines, he partnered with deeply corrupt and violent men. His Trump Vancouver and Toronto projects were shocking.” Davidson’s list goes on.
Then he adds this kicker. “At various points, I tried to put together journalist teams, from TNY, WaPo, WNYC, ProPublica, but it’s very hard to get over institutional resistance to collaboration. I even pitched some rich donors on funding this project, hiring a team of reporters, FBI and DOJ vets, and others. But I made no headway. The general view has been: oh, everyone knows he’s corrupt. His supporters don’t mind.”
His supporters aren’t who such investigations are for. They are needed for the rest of us, including the people in the middle whose minds are still wavering.