Judging from Compete.com’s data on web visits to the presidential candidates’ sites from January through June 2007, the Democratic field has an overwhelming advantage in terms of voter interest, and inside that field there’s a pitched contest between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, with John Edwards holding a strategic advantage in the first caucus state of Iowa. It’s not surprising to see these trends mirroring what we already know about the general trend of the developing election, though I must say it’s pretty startling to see how big the attention gap is between the Democratic and Republican fields.
In addition to the cumulative data that Compete.com has shared for the first six months of the year, the web analytics firm also gave techPresident some selected stats for the distribution of unique visitors to the top nine presidential candidates’ sites for the month of June alone. While they didn’t give us the size of the sample, you should assume it’s much smaller than the overall panel, and thus take these notes with a grain of salt. But there are some interesting trend-lets worth commenting on when you look at the four early states as well as the big prizes of California and New York.
First, Iowa. The six month average gives Edwards the edge here, with 31% of web visits from this state attracted to his site, compared to 29% for Obama and 24% for Clinton. But the June data shows a sizable jump for Clinton, to 36%, while Edwards falls to 23% and Obama to 25%. On the Republican side, the percentages are all in the single digits (which suggests a much smaller sample and thus a much larger margin of error), but it’s worth noting that both Ron Paul and Mitt Romney register a noticeable increase from 2.7% and 3.1% respectively to 4% each.
Next, New Hampshire. Clinton has the lead here overall, with 35%, compared to 33% for Obama and 12% for Edwards. But, interestingly enough, June was not a good month for the Senator from New York. Her share of web visits from Granite Staters dropped sharply, to 16%, while Obama stumbled to 28% and Edwards surged to 22%. (Could it be the Trippi-Prince pie video?) Bill Richardson also had his best showing of any state in our sample in June, reaching 8% of web surfers looking at candidate sites. On the Republican side, everyone is still in the single digits, though both Fred Thompson and Ron Paul rang up decent numbers of 9% and 8% respectively (compared to their 6-month averages in the state of 2% and 3%). John McCain also had a decent month in NH in June, reaching 5%, while Romney and Giuliani each saw their traffic lag.
In Nevada, the June data shows a shift towards Clinton and away from Edwards. She rises from 24% overall to 27%, while he drops from 18% of site visits to just 6%. Meanwhile, Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani both seem to be on the rise in the desert state, going from 4% and 7% respectively overall to 14% and 10%. (Arizonan John McCain, meanwhile, generates little interest from Nevadans, enticing only 2% of the state’s presidential website surfers. I guess familiarity breeds contempt?)
In the last of the four early states, South Carolina, the Democratic field overall seems to be weakening, with each of the top three candidate losing share, and only Bill Richardson gaining (from a pitiful .6 overall average to 4% in June). In fact, SC seems to be the only state where in June the Republican field beats the Democratic field in the share of web visits they’re getting: 58% to 42%. (That compares to the state’s six month average split of 69% D to 31% R.) Could this typically Red state be turning back toward the GOP fold? If so, one big reason is probably the emergence of Tennessee neighbor Fred Thompson as a likely candidate. He pulled 19% of South Carolinian presidential site surfers in June, triple his overall overall average there over 6 months. Mitt Romney, who has been spending on TV ads, also has a very strong showing in SC, with 24% for the month of June (double his six month average).
I also asked Compete.com for their June data from two big states, California and New York, and while these numbers will probably mean nothing come next February, it’s interesting to note that in California, Clinton had a strong month in June (nothing like that campaign song contest, eh?), garnering 34% of all the presidential site visits from the state from that month. Obama was in second with just 17%. She also dominated the field in New York, attracting 49% of all site visits, more than triple Obama’s take of 14% and seven times the number of fellow New Yorker Rudy Giuliani.
As we head deeper into the summer doldrums, I don’t think these distributions will change much. The variations in the June numbers compared to the six-month averages do suggest a fair amount of fluidity to the field, and we all know that when Fred Thompson officially enters the race after Labor Day these numbers will shake up quite a bit. But the basic picture remains what I described up top: overall the Democratic field is much stronger than the Republican field. You might be tempted to blame that on the Republicans’ generally weaker web execution overall, but right now the public is voting with its mouses and the leaders are, generally speaking, all blue.